Background: The transmission features and the feasibility of containing shigellosis remain unclear among apopulation-based study in China. Methods: A population-based usceptible - Exposed - Infectious / Asymptomatic - Recovered (SElAR) model wasbuilt including decreasing the infectious period (DIP) or isolation of shigellosis cases. We analyzed the distributionof the reported shigellosis cases in Hubei Province, China from January 2005 to December 2017, and divided thetime series into several stages according to the heterogeneity of reported incidence during the period, In eachstage, an epidemic season was selected for the modelling and assessing the effectiveness of DlP and case isolation. Results: A total of 130,770 shigellosis cases were reported in Hubei Province. The median of Rr was 1.13 (range0.86-1.21), 1.10 (range: 0.91-1.13), 1.09 (range: 0.92-1.92), and 1.03 (range: 0.94-1.22) in 2005-2006 season, 2010-2011 season, 2013-2014 season, and 2016-2017 season, respectively. The reported incidence decreased significantitrend y’ = 8260.41, P 0.001) among four stages. The incidence of shigellosis decreased sharply when DIP implemente(in three scenarios (y = 0.1, 0.1429, 0.3333) and when proportion of case isolation increased. Conclusions: Year heterogeneity of reported shigellosis incidence exists in Hubei Province. t is feasible to contain thetransmission by implementing DIP and case isolation.
